01 / IMPLEMENTATION & CONTRIBUTION
What the work involves
A shared implementation combines exchange facts, companion-market context, local-model calls, and comparison with a rule baseline. Donald contributed configurable private serving; the source also records jd contributions.
Technical depth
The pipeline groups related markets around a real-world event, hides the target moneyline, separates official feed facts from market-price evidence, and supports monotonic multi-horizon outputs. Uncertainty is an explicit downstream risk state rather than forced certainty.
The project family
market-ending02 / RESULTS
What came out of it
A dated 25-game exploratory comparison reported 22 judged-correct decisions and three unsure. The small sample and market-close labels do not establish general accuracy or economic value.
03 / SUPPORTING EVIDENCE
Follow the source
Implementation notes, project records, and supporting artifacts.
Source context & project scope
Small opportunistic sample with mostly straightforward positives; no robust generalization or economic-value claim.
The documented ground truth uses market close time, which should not be assumed identical to real event end without further validation.
Cross-exchange game identity is not fully unified.
Pipeline, distinctions between facts and prices, target moneyline exclusion, small dated benchmark, and limits.
SOURCE · 2026-09-17Gathering, formatting, single/multi-horizon inference, and evaluation implementation.
SOURCE · 2026-09-17Mixed contributor history; Donald serving configuration and jd prompt revision.
SOURCE · 2026-09-17